Modeling Household Vehicle Ownership in Emerging Economies

Abstract

Household vehicle-ownership model is a critical part of
urban transportation modeling system. This paper offers a comprehensive review on household vehicle demand models at disaggregate level, which consists of four aspects: data, methodology, application and prospect. The first section makes a relevant review on data source and type, and introduces the application of panel data and RP/SP data. In the methodology section, various modeling approaches for vehicle ownership are summarized into two broad categories, including static and dynamic models. Based on research objectives, vehicle-ownership models can be applied to forecast household vehicle count, vehicle type, vehicle use and vehicle transaction. Furthermore, the explanatory factors used in models are listed, and model applications are reviewed for emerging economies and particularly in the context of developing countries. Lastly, the prospect on the challenges and opportunities are discussed in the final section to provide references for future research.